A characterization of conditional probability
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Conditional Probability
A fair die is about to be tossed. The probability that it lands with ‘5’ showing up is 1/6; this is an unconditional probability. But the probability that it lands with ‘5’ showing up, given that it lands with an odd number showing up, is 1/3; this is a conditional probability. In general, conditional probability is probability given some body of evidence or information, probability relativised...
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The relationship between Popper spaces (conditional probability spaces that satisfy some regularity conditions), lexicographic probability systems (LPS’s) [Blume, Brandenburger, and Dekel 1991a; Blume, Brandenburger, and Dekel 1991b], and nonstandard probability spaces (NPS’s) is considered. If countable additivity is assumed, Popper spaces and a subclass of LPS’s are equivalent; without the as...
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A standard view in cognitive psychology is that people estimate probabilities using heuristics that do not follow probability theory. We describe a model of probability estimation where people do follow probability theory in estimation, but are subject to random error or noise. This model predicts that people’s conditional probability estimates will agree closely with probability theory for cer...
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This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain “triangle-fill-in” condition, connecting marginal and joint probabilities, in the Kleisli category of the distribution monad. The conditional probabilities are induced by a map together with a predicate (the condit...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Pacific Journal of Mathematics
سال: 1965
ISSN: 0030-8730,0030-8730
DOI: 10.2140/pjm.1965.15.971